THE DECISION QUALITY BRIEF•ISSUE 02•31 Aug 2026
The most dangerous AI error may happen before the model
By Dr. Eva-Marie Muller-Stuler
1. One Decision
Which problem framing and proxy target should our predictive system optimize?
2. One Illusion (The False-Confidence Pattern)
The Proxy Trap: mistaking a convenient surrogate metric (clicks, duration, historical approvals) for the true consequential outcome.
3. One Piece of Evidence
A credit scoring model that optimized for 'repayment without delinquency within 90 days' silently approved high-churn predatory accounts that generated severe regulatory fines.
4. One Minimum Production Bar
Every proxy target must carry a signed Consequential Decision Statement detailing the exact divergence between proxy and institutional value.
5. One Question to Take to Your Team
"If our model achieves 100% accuracy on its target metric, could our institution still suffer a catastrophic loss?"
NEXT OPERATIONAL STEP
Read Chapter 2 CompanionApply this standard to your live system
Verify whether your team's evidence satisfies this week's production bar.